x2 on all that. IMO, it's better to be safe than sorry. I'd ring Merlin and get an OEM belt shipped asap. I bet he can do overnight for you if you want to spend the money. My VX was down for 4 days when I did mine. Of course, I was taking my time and documenting everything, which added to the downtime, but this is just one of those things you don't want to eff up.
That said, I suppose you could count teeth and match the lines. Your call.
Bart