Who Killed the Electric Car?

[VehiGAZ]

OK, Joe, you have a point regarding RE, but the amount of electricity running through the grid that was produced by RE sources is probably less than 1%, so I'll discount my original argument by that much too - the rest is still fossil-fuel-derived electricity.

Regarding having both a conventional vehicle as well as an EV, well, that doesn't make sense to me - that second e-car for short trips costs a huge amount of energy, materials, and toxic chemicals to develop and manufacture, and I should be responsible for consuming it all just so that on my short trips, I can take the EV and reduce the pollution coming from the vehicle I'm driving that trip just a marginal amount? I'm in no position to do the math on that, but I can't believe it pays off.

[Joe_Black]

It is a hard concept for most, but it's got to start somewhere. We can't just blindly travel down the same dark tunnel like a bunch of lemmings. Yes, an EV takes energy and materials to produce. Once it's completed however there isn't any more consumption of petroleum products with the exception of minor lubrication and tires. Now, if most folk replaced one fossil-fueled vehicle with an EV in their household and recharged it from an RE power source then that's an outright 50% reduction in fossil fuel consumption across the board. For the life of the vehicle. 50%. Period.

The impact of that one change alone, if widely adopted, would be staggering.

[WyrreJ]

OK, Joe, you have a point regarding RE, but the amount of electricity running through the grid that was produced by RE sources is probably less than 1%, so I'll discount my original argument by that much too - the rest is still fossil-fuel-derived electricity.

It is today. It is not necessarily tomorrow. With conventional vehicles it is and always will be oil. The major benefit of electric vehicles (same thing applies to hydrogen or any other non-petroleum powered vehicle) is centralized energy production.

Even today with oil/coal/gas powered electrical plants, the energy extraction efficiencies are much higher at the plant than they are in your car (up to 60% for natural gas vs up to 40% for diesel engines, significantly less for gasoline engines). They also (can) have better pollution controls. (I say "can" because we have this foolish policy of grandfathering in the dirtiest plants in the USA and exempting them from pollution control upgrades, but that's not the case in all countries).

But beyond simply upgrading the pollution controls, having centralized energy production means we can swap out one form of production for another. Already the USA produces 20% of our electricity from nukes, while France does 80% of their electricity from nukes - electric cars already make use of that. It's a lot easier to upgrade a couple of hundred power plants than it is to do a couple of hundred million cars.


As for the costs of the EV1? About $80K including R&D and they leased for about half that. The problem with cancelling the line because the costs were too high is that R&D costs were already sunk. Cancelling the line didn't get those back, meanwhile battery technology continues to be improved by many other sources. So GM would have been able to ride that development curve and realize reductions in manufacturing costs "for free." Additionally, at the time the cost of the electricity was between 1/3rd and 1/2 the cost for the equivalent amount of gasoline, a ratio that's only improved in recent years - although GM probably can't be blamed for not knowing that.

Since demand for the car far exceeded supply (waiting lists were full up, despite GM's claim of a lack of demand) they could probably have rejiggered the numbers to come out a lot better than they were. As a SWAG I bet the base lease price could have gone to at least $60K and they would have still had enough demand for the 200 vehicles per year that they were producing. Combine that with better and cheaper batteries and they are probably around the break-even point sans the already spent R&D.

Last and perhaps least with GM averaging losses of around $1B per quarter recently, losses due to EV1 were a teeny-tiny drop in the bucket. That $1B/qtr didn't do squat for improving the baseline technology in the market for automobiiles while the EV1 as an extended prototype had lots of potential for developing the EV2, EV3, etc that may easily have been cost effective. As tax-payers we gave GM over $1B in pork to support the EV1 development, I consider GM to have had a moral obligation to continue with the EV line. But I blame our government for handing out the pork apparently without a hard contract to keep GM from bailing. (I say apparently because I am entirely willing to believe that such a contract was signed back when the program started, but our pork stuffers just didn't have the guts to enforce it in 2003 because I am cynical that way).

[MZ-N10]

http://www.fast-autos.net/vehicles/Tesla/2007/Roadster/

i duno.....seems quick to me

[transio]

http://www.fast-autos.net/vehicles/Tesla/2007/Roadster/ i duno.....seems quick to me

The Tesla Roadster is gonna be a badass car. It's based upon a Lotus Elise chassis, with a body and suspension designed by Lotus Engineering. Makes 250 bhp, weighs 2400 lbs (900 lb. battery) and does 0-60 in about 4.0 seconds flat. Also has a range of 250 miles.

Oh, and because it's electric, it gets virtually maximum torque in its entire RPM range - from 0 to 13,000 RPM!

This is the future of sports cars! Imagine when we develop electric fuel technology to the point where we can decrease the battery weight to 100 lbs... then the car will weigh only 1600 lbs!!!

I read somewhere that some electric motor manufacturers have approached Lotus with a proposition to create the first electric F1 car! Woudln't that ROCK!?

Anyhow, electric is not dead... it's just beginning!

[Joe_Black]

Just as an FYI, whenever I mention "EV" as in my previous posts my meaning is "Electric Vehicle" and in no way am referencing that GM abomination the EV1.

[Y33TREKker]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070107/...toshow_volt_dc

DETROIT (Reuters) - Struggling auto giant General Motors Corp. (NYSE:GM - news) on Sunday revived its once-failed idea of a mass-market electric car, unveiling a new "concept" car called the Volt designed to use little or no gasoline.

Introduced at the North American International Auto Show here, the Chevrolet Volt will draw power exclusively from a next-generation battery pack recharged by a small onboard engine -- if the technology is ready in two or three years.

"We have a thoroughly studied concept, but further battery development will define the critical path to start of production," said Jon Lauckner, a GM vice president for product development.

The Volt is designed to run for 40 miles on pure electric power, making it marketable for everyday family use.

For the average American driver who drives 40 miles a day, or 15,000 miles a year, the Volt will require no fuel and lead to an annual savings of 500 gallons of gasoline, GM said.

Unlike current gas-electric hybrids, which use a parallel system twinning battery power and a combustion engine, the Volt will be driven entirely by electric power.

GM has been stung by criticism that it conspired to kill the EV1, an experimental electric vehicle program it launched in 1996 and killed by 2003. The documentary film "Who Killed the Electric Car?" released last year criticized GM for first developing but then abandoning electric vehicles.

GM said the Volt will have advantages over the defunct EV1, including smaller batteries, faster recharging, more room for passengers, and a faster maximum highway speed.

"For most drivers, the Volt will use little or no gasoline," GM chief engineer Nick Zielinski told reporters.

FIGHTING TO GET "GREEN" -- AND TOYOTA?

The Volt is part of GM's bid to demonstrate it is investing in break-through technology with some of the $9 billion saved through a wrenching program of job cuts and plant closures.

The push to develop environmentally friendly cars is also an attempt by GM to distance itself from its close association with gas-guzzling sport utility vehicles, a reputation executives say has hampered its sales in some markets.

The Volt's combustion engine is designed only as a supplement to keep its batteries charged, an innovation GM executives hope will help the automaker jump ahead of Toyota Motor Corp. (7203.T), which now dominates the hybrid market.

GM cut 34,000 jobs last year and plans to close 12 plants. Toyota is expected to surpass GM in global production this year, ending a run of more than 80 years for GM as the world's No. 1 automaker.

In November, GM Chief Executive Rick Wagoner used a speech at the Los Angeles Auto Show to announce that GM would build plug-in hybrid vehicles, a potential industry first.

Plug-in hybrids, a favorite among many environmentalists, are capable of being charged with a standard electric outlet, a feature GM said it would build into the Volt.

"We commend GM for being the first out of the starting gate in the great plug-in car race of 2007," said Felix Kramer, who founded the non-profit group CalCars to spur automakers and regulators to push for mass-market electric car production.

Battery technology is key to the next generation of hybrid vehicles as automakers seek ways to lower the cost of batteries and increase their power and storage capacity.

The Volt will be outfitted with new lithium-ion battery packs, which hold a charge longer than the nickel metal hydride batteries now used widely in automobiles.

Lauckner said the Volt should be ready for production around the same time the lithium-ion batteries will be, which GM expects to be in two to three years.

Automakers have been cautious that lithium-ion batteries, which are now used in consumer electronics such as laptop computers, have a tendency to overheat.

But GM also plans to introduce hybrid systems in its Saturn Vue, Saturn Aura and Chevrolet Malibu cars and in its Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra trucks.

Last week, GM awarded lithium-ion battery development contracts for its Saturn Vue Green Line hybrid to Johnson Controls Inc. (NYSE:JCI - news) affiliate Johnson Controls-Saft Advanced Power Solutions and Cobasys, a venture of Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX - news) and Energy Conversion Devices Inc. (Nasdaq:ENER - news). Cobasys will work with privately held A123Systems to develop the technology.

[VehiGAZ]

$80k/vehicle including development costs? I don't think so... I just got my brand-spanking-new Car & Driver in the mail today, and the first editorial happens to address this movie (how timely). In the article, the editor pegged the cost of each EV at around $1,000,000 including development costs. This from a guy that has GM's engineering staff on speed-dial. That's a far cry from $80k.

Secondly, the speculation that the lease cost of the EV could be raised to make it a sustainable product is just nonsense, because there was no buy-out option on the 3-4 year lease (since they would need a total battery replacement to go longer, adding thousands to the cost of maintenance) so the "lease cost" is meaningless - all that matters is the monthly vig, and that was a paltry $300-$400 a month. Even on the high side of each of these estimates, that means GM was able to recoup about $19,200 of that million bucks it spent to produce each one. (substitute the $80k figure, and it's still a horrendous money loser) So GM threw millions and millions of dollars (some of which came from our taxes) down the drain to appease the California Air Resources Board for a couple of years before they backpedaled their impossible sell-an-EV-if-you-want-to-sell-anything-in-Cali mandate. And GM is the enemy?

There was another great little factoid about the EV-1 in that C/D editorial... they asked the engineers who developed it what the range would be on a winter day with cold batteries, using the heater and defroster. The answer? 12 miles. Yeah, what a livable, practical means of transportation...

And I don't buy the contention that it makes sense for all of us to replace one of our cars with an EV which we can recharge using our home renewable energy supply. Again, expending tons of resources to replace something that will tax other resources marginally less doesn't make any sense on a macroeconomic scale. Hell, I don't think it makes any sense even on a microeconomic scale - I would have to spend tens of thousands to replace a perfectly good car with an EV replacement, spends thousands and thousands of dollars building a wind turbine or set of photovoltaic cells in my backyard ("What a lovely addition!"), all to move my pollution production to a coal-fired power plant?! Besides, those solar panels and wind turbines don't power a special green outlet out back behind the house - they are metered and feed the electricity back into the GRID while you get a credit against youe electric bill.

If you want to expend resources to reduce pollution, there are a lot of cheaper and more effective ways to do it than that!

[JAFO]

If you want to expend resources to reduce pollution, there are a lot of cheaper and more effective ways to do it than that!

So if there are cheaper and more effective ways to reduce pollution, why did California choose to go with the EV? Are you saying that they are intentionally ignoring other currently available options, as if they like the fact that they have the highest air pollution?

I guess one way to cut air pollution in half would be to pass a law that said you can only drive every other day of the week. That should cut air pollution in half.

Or if people didn't like being told when or where they can or can't drive maybe add a $3 per gallon gas tax. Then keep rasing the tax until the air pollution has lowered to acceptable (heathly) levels.

Either of these two situations wouldn't cost the government any money and the second may actually turn a profit.

Banning use of vehicles because of pollution or environmental abuse has happened before. Example, 2 cycle personal water craft have been banned by California and other states. ATVs have been banned from some public lands. Motorized vehicles have been banned from most of the Oregon coast line's beaches. If we do not take responsibility for our own environmental abuse then eventually, gradually, our freedoms will be taken away from us.

[WyrreJ]

$80k/vehicle including development costs? I don't think so... I just got my brand-spanking-new Car & Driver in the mail today, and the first editorial happens to address this movie (how timely). In the article, the editor pegged the cost of each EV at around $1,000,000 including development costs. This from a guy that has GM's engineering staff on speed-dial. That's a far cry from $80k.

You are missing the $1B that we, the taxpayer paid for. Subtract that, and you are down to $80K for the remaining R&D plus manufacturing.

Furthemore, the ~$1.2B that GM estimated the total cost at (before the pork) is not out of line with what it costs GM to do a face-lift for a single model of its gasoline powered cars. Just a redesign, not even a start from scratch like the EV1 was. The only reason the average cost per EV1 was $1M is because of the exceptionally low volume of production. Simple amoratization.

Secondly, the speculation that the lease cost of the EV could be raised to make it a sustainable product is just nonsense, because there was no buy-out option on the 3-4 year lease (since they would need a total battery replacement to go longer, adding thousands to the cost of maintenance)

That bastion of tree-huggers, the Rand Corp, estimated that, in 2000, the cost to replace the nimh battery packs was up to $12K tops - probably a third less if the batteries could be produced in volume. Battery tech has only gotten cheaper and more efficient since then moving on to li-ons today. Since GM only permitted a 3 year lease, there were no real numbers for how long the batteries would last. But Toyota's Rav4EV with about the same size nimh batteries (27.5kWh vs the EV1's 26.5kWh) seem to consistently do better than 130K miles on the first set of batteries.

Couple that with reduced cost of maintence due to far less moving parts, no need for things like oil changes and the huge savings on fuel costs and that battery replacement is really a non-issue. Just hand-waving on GM's part.

So, saying that increasing the lease cost is impossible because GM won't do and has a ready-made but bogus excuse for it is the real nonsense.

There was another great little factoid about the EV-1 in that C/D editorial... they asked the engineers who developed it what the range would be on a winter day with cold batteries, using the heater and defroster. The answer? 12 miles. Yeah, what a livable, practical means of transportation...

That "factoid" is a great example of how the media lies by telling the truth. Sure, it was true. For the 1st generation lead-acid batteries (1996). The 2nd generation nimh batteries (1999) from Ovionic were not adversely affected by cold. A perfect example demonstrating my point that GM could get 3rd party improvements in battery tech for "free."

And I don't buy the contention that it makes sense for all of us to replace one of our cars with an EV which we can recharge using our home renewable energy supply. .........

You are absolutely right. As long as you restate the issue in exaggerated terms nobody is going to agree with it.

You seem to be getting a lot your information from a recent issue of C/D, as I was researching this response I came across a couple mentions of C/D's coverage of the EV1 and other electrics in the past. They were all complaints about and corrections for C/D's articles. I get the distinct impression that C/D has long had a bias against either the EV1 or EVs in general. You would do well to find some less biased sources.