Los Angeles will first experience a plateau in real estate prices, then take the proverbial dip as there will be foreclosures due to a large amount of interest-only variable loans which many will find they can not afford anymore as interest rises and principals will be added, hence flooding the market with sales or even foreclosures. The real estate cycle is usually 8-9 years. If you buy today, you are buying at the top but get a 6% fixed rate and five years from now your loan will appear a bargain. If you purchase for 350k now, it may dip to ~$300k in the next 5 years. Ten to fifteen years from now this will double again...I have no doubt since population growth is still by far outpacing new construction. The damand for housing/ rental or sales will be high as a metropolis such as the LA basin will continue to grow. Trying to time the market, be it real estate or stocks; is always tricky. Investors say that when you are ready to buy....you buy! Since your plan is long term, you will not loose but only gain owning a home in SoCa. Say you did want to leave the area, with a ~6% loan on your home you could break even just renting it. My advice, get a fixed rate, don't be fooled by low two year or five year fixed rates. A 2% increase in your loan will add significantly to your mortgage payment. A friend of mine wanted to wait for prices to come down, that was five years ago and prices have more than doubled in some areas. Her idea of waiting means now that she will never afford a house. If you are going to live there and raise a family....BUY!!!!