I dunno if it is the weather or what, but in the last couple of weeks I've had similar problems, but upon further inspection it was the belt getting folded over on itself going through the upper metal guide doohickey. It gets twisted a little bit, and as it gets pulled through the twist turns into a full-blown fold-over and then it is too thick to continue sliding through the doohickey. Pull on it, curse at it and maybe it won't fold over again, or maybe not, repeat until it eventually goes all the way through.
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