Anything you fix/replace that makes a noticable difference in how the vehicle rolls should improve your mileage for sure.
But temperature-wise, cold air is better than warm air for performance and efficiency. It's VERY noticeable at 5500 feet here in Denver. I always get worse mileage in the summer (assuming my heavy right foot is the constant) at 90F vs winter at 30F. Hot air = less O2 per cubic foot intake = engine has to work harder to produce the same amount of power. Hence so many "cold air intake" kits.
I suppose that could be offset by warm temps making things roll and lubricate more easily, but that just gets back in to the "too many variables to tell" category.
Basically, we get crap mileage no matter what we do. Plus it's all relative to what you're used to and what you're willing to stomach.