Well, I know a guy who bought a 2001 with less than 5K miles on it for $17K-even early in 2003. Given that brand new 2001's were going for under $20K in the summer of 2002, he didn't get much of a bargain.
With such low production numbers, market pricing for the VX is a different game than one for a commodity like a jeep or a camry. Unlike commodity markets, more often than not it comes down to the threshold of pain for each party to the transaction. But, given that caveat, I just ran KBB quotes for an "Excellent" rated 99 VX with 40K miles (I don't know how many miles Dave has really got, I just picked a low to reasonable number). KBB came back with about 10K/12K/14K +/- $300 depending on zip code, for trade/private/retail.
So, what it looks like is that paying the buy-out is pretty darn close to paying retail, and yet there are no dealer resale expenses to cover and the buyout would be the same even if the car was in crappy shape. A keen negotiator would work those two facts really hard and see how far the dealer budges. It also depends on how well the dealer thinks the VX will sell, we all know about new VX's that sat on dealer lots for months or even years without selling. If this dealer had an experience like that, he's probably gunshy which means even more negotiating strength for Dave.
I understand how some people here are unable to rationally evaluate today's market for the vehicross because of their connection with their car. Dealers have a name for that kind of person, "little Johnny's college tuition." The perspective of the dealer and the bank, is just that business is business, they certainly don't get attached to cars. So, if you are attached to your car, don't put yourself in a position where you have to negotiate with a business for it because they will automatically hold the upper hand in a situation where you care and they don't.
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