Alternative fuels...the future...

[Twilight Imaging.net]

I am curious as to the general opinions to the future of fuels and the future of vehicles...
It looks like right now...Hydrogen... with many other possibilities...

How long do you think it will be before alt' fuel cars are on the road and comprising the majority of the market?

Do you think, eventually, that gasoline fueled vehicles will be eliminated? If so, how many years...50, 60, 100, 150??
Without any political battles...I was just wondering what everyones take was on this...
Thanks...
Mike

[WILLY]

Well i dont think this can be discussed without discussing politics cause that and money greed is the reason alternative means of transpo is not on the road.

[kpaske]

I'll try to stay out of the politics, but WILLY is right - this conversation will almost inevitably head in that direction at some point.

There are already plenty of non-gasoline vehicles on the road today - diesel, ethanol, electric, hybrid, WVO (waste vegetable oil), SVO (straight vegetable oil). Solar and hydrogen are even possible alternatives in the near future. The problem is that most of them aren't profitable, and have to compete with gasoline which is still relatively inexpensive. The other problem is a supply and demand issue - there is tons of petroleum being pumped out of the ground as we speak, and it breaks down into several different fuels in fixed proportions (kerosene, diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, etc). Unless you eliminate all forms of petroleum based energy, you still have to find something to do with all the byproducts. Most of the developed world is so dependant on these products, only a gradual transition is possible - it will likely come in the forms of biodiesel, ethanol, and hybrids. Will this move us closer to hydrogen or electric powered vehicles? Yes, but it won't happen overnight.

I think most people who fully understand the energy problems will tell you that we will inevitably have to stop using petroleum based products not only because of pollution (the global warming debate), but because it's in limited supply. If we start transitioning to alternative fuels, the supply could last much longer, but it will run out one day if we continue pumping.

My predictions (or let's call them wild guesses ):

-- Majority alternative fuels: 20-30 years
-- Completely off petroluem: not in my lifetime

[Joe_Black]

The irony of this is that petroleum products are the alternative fuels. Before petroleum fuels were common most road-going vehicles ran on either ethanol alcohol, vegetable oil (the original compression engine invented by Rudolf Diesel) or were electric. And a good many were external-combustion powered: Steam. Believe it or not, in the early 1900's electric cars outsold ICE (internal combustion engine) cars significantly.

And now here were are today, trying to figure out how to do something that was simple over a hundred years ago!

There's a lot of information out there about various engine fuels, and most of the true answers are in history. The unfortunate truth for us, and a convenient one for those profiting in the petroleum industry, is rampant ignorance on the part of the average citizen and an all-to-willing desire to believe without reservation anything spat at them from television.

As for predictions? We're a fickle species when it comes to that which sustains us, so when there's profit and greed involved all bets are off.

[kpaske]

We're a fickle species when it comes to that which sustains us, so when there's profit and greed involved all bets are off.

Yes indeed... One thing that keeps my outlook positive is the fact that there are some extremely smart, rich people on this planet that are actually interested in education and clean technologies and not motivated only by greed. Bill Gates of Microsoft is one that comes to mind, and Elon Musk of Tesla Motors is another.

[newthings]

My two cents –

I agree with Kpaske, 20 years to have seen a big shift. Things seem to have to get really bad to get any change. Planning ahead gets only as far as paper studies until the system crashes. Too much money being made off the “Low Hanging Fruit” It is the boring mundane truth that things don’t go ZAP and change; they creep along in small increments. A look at an old 1950 Popular Mechanics magazine will show what I mean. No flying cars today.

The concept of an energy ‘Tipping Point’ (Crash), is possible caused by everything from an Arab oil cut off to a new discovery of an alternative energy source. Things’ getting bad does not mean technology will pop to the rescue; they may just be bad for some time.

I always tell people that our grandchildren will say,” Let me get this straight. You had this thing called oil from which you could make all kinds of wonder things and you could not reproduce and you burned it all up? Were you nuts or just greedy?” We probably were.

China and India will not hold back on their economic growth for the sake of conservation and they will bid up the price of oil for us. They will have all of our money from their manufactured goods sales to pay the higher price. We will be (Are in) a death spiral of fewer quality jobs, little manufacturing in the US, and less money with which to buy things.

Batteries are a real showstopper. A few technologies have surfaced like Zinc-Air and Platinum fuel cells, but they only improve things a few percent and are very expensive relative to oil. Arthur C. Clarke once said, “ A suitably advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” I don’t expect any magic in the battery area.

As a worker in the semiconductor industry, it was always a joke that value of the solar cell energy production could never pay for the cost of production if you include the process from Silicon to finished solar panel. Some applications make sense like remote locations, but not as an energy source for the national grid. Home solar cells, in a wired area, are highly subsidized, meaning Siemens gets a big bite of taxpayer money. The subsidized cost of panels breaks even at 8-10 years and, guess what, the silicone cover seals break down in 8-10 years and the cover glass is clouded by pollution.

So here is my prospectus for the energy future –-

1. Fewer people. Worldwide crowding will trigger heath conditions resulting in a thinning of the herd. This won’t be pretty, but there will be more of everything for the survivors. You will be able to pollute and burn all you want and mother earth will just shrug. You won’t be able to make a large enough mess for natural cleaning processes not to dispose of. Then we will need to keep the lid on population. Doing it overtly now is not politically possible and it is too late anyway.

2. Some new energy sources will emerge. Iceland is producing Hydrogen from natural steam/electrical generation. It will get shipped to the east coast of America. Maybe 10 percent of the east could use Hydrogen; Iceland will be the new Saudi Arabia. Seal jokes will replace Camel jokes.

3. Atomic power will return. We have 105 reactors providing power now. The French recycle and recover fuel rather than burying it. We must get past the political issues and use what we have.

4. Coal. We are the Kuwait of coal. It will be an expensive fuel but coal oil can be made.

5. Methane Hydride. It is just laying in a water ice mix everywhere in the deep oceans in globally enormous quantities. Just go and get it. It is relatively expensive, but available and clean.

So much for my happy thoughts and good luck to us all.

Roy